How the Limits of Deterrence Shape the Possibility of a Strike on Iran

As we gear up for the long winded and jingoistic zeal of the American electoral season, there are plenty of reasons to worry that international conflict could once again break out in the Middle East. After all 2011 and long Arab Spring have revealed new fault lines throughout the Middle East, and the very fragility located at the core of the regional pax Americana established by the signing of the Camp David Accord in 1979. As Americans rejoice in the relative success of their involvement in the Libya mission,[1] fidget nervously about the outcome of Egypt’s elongated electoral season, ignore the internal political conflicts playing out in Iraq after our withdrawal, and fret indecisively about the ongoing civil wars festering unattended in Syria and Yemen,[2] to say nothing of the border conflict between the two Sudans, most Americans attention has shifted to the Gulf and America’s standoff with Iran over its nuclear ambitions.  The ongoing reality television series that the Republican debates have become, feature nightly invocations about the existential danger that Iran poses to this nation, even as bluster over new sanctions targeting Iran’s petroleum industry and saber rattling in the Straits of Hormuz highlight the danger of war.

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The escalating situation in Syria

See an activist from within Syria and my colleague at Princeton Karam Nachar describe the state of war which exist inside of Syria today. Listen to this video and find out more about the role of international monitors, the Syrian protest movement, social media and the role of the Syrian diaspora and exile communities. Both analysts provide precious insights into which communities have moved away from the regime and which communities remain loyal.

http://www.democracynow.org/2011/12/29/syrian_activist_speaks_out_from_hiding

Qatar in the Horn of Africa: What Type of Regional Power is the Emirate?

Can a statelet be a regional power? Does size or population matter if a state possesses wealth? And if not at the beginning of the second decade of the 21st century, what are the sources of power and authority in the international system? Have we entered a world where even a lonely city-state can leverage the resources necessary to shape regional or global events?

The strange rise of Qatar as a regional actor has restored to center stage questions about the types of power that different kinds of actors can marshal within the international system.

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