As we gear up for the long winded and jingoistic zeal of the American electoral season, there are plenty of reasons to worry that international conflict could once again break out in the Middle East. After all 2011 and long Arab Spring have revealed new fault lines throughout the Middle East, and the very fragility located at the core of the regional pax Americana established by the signing of the Camp David Accord in 1979. As Americans rejoice in the relative success of their involvement in the Libya mission, fidget nervously about the outcome of Egypt’s elongated electoral season, ignore the internal political conflicts playing out in Iraq after our withdrawal, and fret indecisively about the ongoing civil wars festering unattended in Syria and Yemen, to say nothing of the border conflict between the two Sudans, most Americans attention has shifted to the Gulf and America’s standoff with Iran over its nuclear ambitions. The ongoing reality television series that the Republican debates have become, feature nightly invocations about the existential danger that Iran poses to this nation, even as bluster over new sanctions targeting Iran’s petroleum industry and saber rattling in the Straits of Hormuz highlight the danger of war.
Just when we thought the Somali crisis couldn’t get any more complicated, it did.
The effects of Kenya’s recent intervention in Somalia – both for Kenya, and the Somalis themselves – remains the subject of much speculation. Some question whether Kenya will achieve its war aims. Others ask if military intervention can stabilize the desperate political and humanitarian situation in southern Somalia. Many more openly ponder whether Al-Shabaab will respond by striking targets within Kenya’s major metropolitan centers, thereby widening the regional stakes of a conflict that is already deeply complex. Continue reading